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Date: Fri, 23 Apr 2021 13:44:45 +0000
Subject: How the Modi Government Overestimated =?utf-8?Q?India=E2=80=99s?=
 Capacity to Make COVID Vaccines
From: The Wire <[email protected]>
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 Content preview:  The information about capacity limitations was available from
    day one – and the government overlooked it.  ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ ‌ 
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The information about capacity limitations was available from day one
=
=E2=80=93 and the government overlooked it.=20
=C2=A0=E2=80=8C=C2=A0=
=E2=80=8C=C2=A0=E2=80=8C=C2=A0=E2=80=8C=C2=A0=E2=80=8C=C2=A0=E2=80=8C=C2=
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=A0=E2=80=8C=C2=A0=E2=80=8C=C2=A0=E2=80=8C=C2=A0=E2=80=8C=C2=A0=E2=80=8C=
=C2=A0=E2=80=8C=C2=A0=E2=80=8C=C2=A0=E2=80=8C=C2=A0=E2=80=8C=C2=A0=E2=80=
=8C=C2=A0=E2=80=8C=C2=A0=E2=80=8C=C2=A0=E2=80=8C=C2=A0=E2=80=8C=C2=A0=
=E2=80=8C=C2=A0=E2=80=8C=C2=A0=E2=80=8C=C2=A0=E2=80=8C=C2=A0


 =09=
=09
[https://thewire.in/health/how-the-modi-government-overestimated-indi=
as-capacity-to-make-covid-vaccines]


HOW THE MODI GOVERNMENT OVEREST=
IMATED INDIA=E2=80=99S CAPACITY TO MAKE COVID
VACCINES
[https://thewire=
.in/government/how-the-modi-government-overestimated-indias-capacity-to-mak=
e-covid-vaccines]


The total number of COVID-19 vaccine doses admini=
stered around the
world stood at =C2=A0928.68 million on April 20, 2021, =
according to Our
World in Data. India had administered 127.13 million dos=
es, behind
only the US, with 213.39 million, and China, 195.02 million. S=
ome 40%
of the US population, versus only 8% of the Indian population, ha=
d
received at least one dose, writes Neeta Sanghi.

According to Indi=
a=E2=80=99s Ministry of External Affairs, India had
exported 66 million d=
oses to 94 countries as of April 22. Of this,
only 10.61 million were gra=
nts; the remainder had been exported by
Serum Institute of India (SII), p=
artly to meet its contract with the
COVAX alliance and partly as direct s=
ale to foreign countries.

India=E2=80=99s contribution to the global v=
olume of doses of COVID-19
vaccines is 193 million, out of 929 million do=
ses, which is 21%. This
is in sharp contrast to a widely held belief in I=
ndia, and abroad,
that India will be the bulwark of COVID-19 vaccines for=
 poor
countries. The statistical basis of this belief is an oft repeated=

statement that India contributes 60% of the world=E2=80=99s production o=
f
vaccines.

This is an overestimation of India=E2=80=99s capacity. A=
 2019 report by the
International Market Analysis Research and Consulting=
 group stated
that India =E2=80=9Caccounts for around 60% of the total va=
ccines supplied
to UNICEF=E2=80=9D (emphasis added). =C2=A0UNICEF caters =
largely to child
vaccinations like DTP, MMR, polio, etc. in the developin=
g and
underdeveloped worlds. Its requirement doesn=E2=80=99t include chil=
d and
adult vaccinations in the developed world.

Nevertheless, this =
is still a sizable contribution and a very
commendable achievement of Ind=
ian vaccine manufacturers. But this high
capacity is not easily convertib=
le to making vaccines for the COVID-19
pandemic.

Read the full analy=
sis HERE
[https://thewire.in/health/how-the-modi-government-overestimated=
-indias-capacity-to-make-covid-vaccines].

 =09=09 Support The Wire [ht=
tps://thewire.in/support]=20

 [https://thewire.in/government/rampant-arr=
ests-rare-convictions-in-punjab-the-uapa-is-ripe-for-misuse]
[https://the=
wire.in/government/rampant-arrests-rare-convictions-in-punjab-the-uapa-is-r=
ipe-for-misuse]COVID-19:
JUST WHAT IS HAPPENING IN DELHI?
[https://thew=
ire.in/health/covid-19-delhi-deaths-cases-fourth-surge]
 [https://thewire=
.in/government/rampant-arrests-rare-convictions-in-punjab-the-uapa-is-ripe-=
for-misuse]
[https://thewire.in/government/rampant-arrests-rare-convictio=
ns-in-punjab-the-uapa-is-ripe-for-misuse]


This is a note on Delhi=
=E2=80=99s COVID-19 epidemic =E2=80=93 to put the
devastating current new=
s in context. The desperate hunt for beds, the
shortages of oxygen, almos=
t 30,000 positive tests and over 250
recorded deaths in one day, with eve=
ry third person tested being found
positive, writes Murad Banaji.

Th=
is is Delhi=E2=80=99s fourth COVID-19 surge. It is overshadowing all the
=
others. As in other cities, this tragedy comes when so many have
already =
been infected. By January 2021, more than 50% of the city had
been infect=
ed. This estimate is backed up by lots of data and
analysis.
Prior to t=
his wave, things seemed under control. By mid-February, with
60,000 daily=
 tests, Delhi was finding only 100-150 cases. There were
one or two daily=
 deaths. This is unlike Mumbai, which was testing much
less but reporting=
 more infections and deaths even in the =E2=80=9Ccalm
period=E2=80=9D.
=

The rise of this wave in Delhi was slow at first. The basic
reproducti=
on number (R0) actually crossed 1 in mid-February, but
hovered below 1.5 =
until March 19 =E2=80=93 by which time there were about
700 daily cases. =
Since April 5, it has been around 2. Deaths started a
clear rise around M=
arch 19, and recently have shot up.

My latest estimates (from last yea=
r): about 1 in 10 infections were
being picked up in testing. In the last=
 week, there have been around
1.5 lakh cases =E2=80=93 at a 10% detection=
 rate, this would correspond to
1.5 million new infections (or 8% of the =
city=E2=80=99s population). The
reality is almost certainly worse.

R=
ead the full analysis HERE
[https://thewire.in/health/covid-19-delhi-deat=
hs-cases-fourth-surge].

WATCH | 'INDIA MAY SEE FIVE LAKH COVID CASES, =
3,000 DEATHS A D=E2=80=8BAY BY
MAY 1'
[https://thewire.in/health/watch-=
india-may-see-five-lakh-covid-cases-3000-deaths-a-day-by-may-1]


 =
=09=09
[https://thewire.in/health/watch-india-may-see-five-lakh-covid-cas=
es-3000-deaths-a-day-by-may-1]


In an interview that will perhaps un=
nerve the government, one of
America=E2=80=99s highly regarded epidemiolo=
gists and biostatisticians has
said that according to her mathematical pr=
ojections, India could have
500,000 daily COVID-19 cases and 3,000 daily =
COVID-19 deaths by May 1.

Professor Bhramar Mukherjee of Michigan Univ=
ersity has told Karan
Thapar in a 28-minute interview for _The Wire_ that=
 in terms of
infections, the peak will come in mid-May when India could s=
ee 8-10
lakh daily infections and in terms of deaths, the peak will be tw=
o
weeks later in May-end when India could expect 4,500 daily deaths.
=

Watch the full interview HERE
[https://thewire.in/health/watch-india-m=
ay-see-five-lakh-covid-cases-3000-deaths-a-day-by-may-1].

HIS MASTER'S=
 SPIN: AS MODI FACES COVID SURGE HEAT, MEDIA'S NEW
VILLAINS ARE FARMERS, =
BABUS
[https://thewire.in/media/his-masters-spin-as-modi-faces-covid-surg=
e-heat-medias-new-villains-are-farmers-babus]


As Delhi=E2=80=99s ho=
spitals were making desperate calls for oxygen and
Prime Minister Narendr=
a Modi=E2=80=99s personal handling of the COVID-19
crisis came under shar=
p scrutiny, the ruling party=E2=80=99s spokespersons
and government-align=
ed media found new scapegoats this week.

On Tuesday evening, Delhi chi=
ef minister Arvind Kejriwal tweeted that
some hospitals were left with =
=E2=80=9Cjust a few hours of oxygen=E2=80=9D. Deputy
chief minister Manis=
h Sisodia posted a list of hospitals with the
number of hours left for th=
eir oxygen supply to run out.

In his letter to commerce minister Piyus=
h Goyal, Kejriwal alleged that
the output of a major oxygen supplier to D=
elhi hospitals, Inox Air
Products, has been =E2=80=9Cdiverted=E2=80=9D to=
 other states. =E2=80=9CAt this critical
juncture, it will not be possibl=
e for hospitals to enter into the
contractual arrangements with the new s=
uppliers who have now been
assigned to Delhi. The disruption is already s=
tarting to cause
critical shortage across major hospitals,=E2=80=9D he wr=
ote on April 19.

The fact that Delhi=E2=80=99s private hospitals thems=
elves took to social
media and also approached the high court for help on=
 the oxygen front
made it clear that this was not some political battle b=
etween the Aam
Aadmi Party, which rules Delhi, and the BJP, which control=
s the
Centre.

The oxygen shortage was a sharp pointer to ordinary In=
dians that
something was seriously amiss in the Centre=E2=80=99s handling=
 of the
fast-spiralling crisis. If they had missed the earlier warnings s=
igns
=E2=80=93 the failure to cancel the Kumbh Mela and the enormous elec=
tion
rallies in West Bengal and elsewhere =E2=80=93 the fact that hospita=
ls in
the national capital were literally gasping for breath triggered
=
widespread anger against Narendra Modi and his government.

As if on cu=
e, the Times group=E2=80=99s English language news channel, Times
Now, le=
d the charge in the opposite direction. Its primetime show had
the hashta=
g =E2=80=9CKisanCovidAndHypocrisy=E2=80=9D, claiming that the opposition
=
was hypocritical for not objecting to the farmers=E2=80=99 protest, as the=

former had slammed the BJP for not just allowing but also encouraging
=
the Kumbh Mela.

Farmers have been protesting at Delhi's borders for mo=
nths now. Why
would this create sudden delays in a time of crisis?

R=
ead the full analysis HERE
[https://thewire.in/politics/his-masters-spin-=
as-modi-faces-covid-surge-heat-medias-new-villains-are-farmers-babus].
=

A PART-TIME CENTRAL GOVERNMENT WITH PART-TIME MINISTERS CAN'T HANDLE A=

CRISIS LIKE COVID
[https://thewire.in/government/modi-government-elect=
ion-campaign-covid-19]


This week, both the Delhi and Bombay high co=
urts reprimanded the
Centre in stark language for its lack of COVID-19 pr=
eparedness.
=E2=80=9CThere is no sense of humanity left or what. This is =
really, really
ridiculous. It is an emergency of such a grave nature. Hum=
an lives are
not that important?=E2=80=9D said the Delhi high court on th=
e
life-threatening undersupply of oxygen, writes Tara Krishnaswamy.

=
Meanwhile, the Bombay high court criticised the Government of India
for i=
ts poor vaccine rollout =E2=80=93 =E2=80=9CThere needs to be a solution. Yo=
u
can=E2=80=99t leave old people like this. It=E2=80=99s like choosing be=
tween the
devil and the deep sea. You have ICU in an ambulance, you can=

definitely manage a refrigerator for home vaccination. You can=E2=80=
=99t
leave the old to die=E2=80=9C.

To put it simply, the courts rap=
ped the Central government for failing
its basic duty of protecting the l=
ife of citizens and asked to see
overdue homework. No such plan has been =
published yet, or known to be
formulated by the Centre, even as India is =
in the eye of the storm.

The fact is that the political executive of t=
he Government of India,
who are wholly responsible for such a plan, have =
been busy =E2=80=93 with
state elections in four states and one union ter=
ritory. The very
public social media timelines of key figures in the exec=
utive have
been dominated by poll propaganda in the past weeks.

Iron=
ically, even as the winter session of the parliament was cancelled
in Dec=
ember 2020 citing COVID-19, the home minister held an election
rally in M=
idnapore! The highest political executives of the Government
of India hav=
e been electioneering for five months now, supporting a
multi-state, mult=
i-phase poll schedule plan, regardless of COVID-19.

Read the full arti=
cle HERE
[https://thewire.in/government/modi-government-election-campaign=
-covid-19].

 =09=09 Support The Wire [https://thewire.in/support]=20
=

MORE IN NEWS=20

THE MODI GOVT WANTS TO VACCINATE ALL INDIANS. ITS PLA=
N POINTS THE
OTHER WAY.
[https://science.thewire.in/health/modi-governm=
ent-covid-vaccination-strategy-manufacturers-price-war-inequity/]
The Cen=
tre's latest announcement, in its big-bang approach and lack of
preparedn=
ess, is reminiscent of Modi's demonetisation and complete
lockdown announ=
cements in 2016 and 2020.

Waiting For a COVID-19 Hospital Bed in Delhi=
: A Personal Experience
The national capital is imploding and the public =
medical
infrastructure is in a state of intentional ruin. Central hospita=
ls
don't even have functional bathrooms, forget oxygen or higher-level
=
care.

Don't Let Juvenile Delinquents Become Repeat Offenders, Rehabili=
tate
Them
If not rehabilitated with empathy, juvenile delinquents can b=
ecome
hardened criminals with a great social cost.

A Day After TMC, =
BJP Promises Free Vaccines in Bengal 'as Soon as' It
Comes to Power
BJP=
's promise of a free vaccine in Bengal =E2=80=93 in the absence of any
su=
ch promise from the same government at the Centre =E2=80=93 raises
questi=
ons on why the rest of India must be deprived of a free vaccine
in the ab=
sence of elections.

Vedanta=E2=80=99s Plea To Operate Oxygen Plant in =
Thoothukudi Unit Is a
Backdoor Entry Ploy
Vedanta has failed to disclos=
e the separate closure for causing the
disastrous 2013 gas leak in its su=
bmission to the Supreme Court.
Why?=C2=A0=20

Did you like this mail? H=
ate it? Either way, let us know!=20

Your feedback helps us get you the n=
ews you want to see. Email us
[email protected]=C2=A0with the =
subject line "Your Newsletter: I
Have Thoughts".

The Wire believes i=
n independent journalism - journalism whose only
loyalty remains to its r=
eaders. We speak truth to power, and in times
like this, it's proving to =
be more crucial than ever before.=C2=A0

We want to keep doing what we =
do, and we can do that with your
support. If you believe in what The Wire=
 stands for and want to join
us, click below to support us. Every bit cou=
nts.=C2=A0 =C2=A0=20

=09=09 [https://thewire.in/support]=20

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Looking forward to hearin=
g from you,=C2=A0

Warmly,=C2=A0
The Wire Team

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        The information about capacity limitations was available from day o=
ne =E2=80=93 and the government overlooked it.
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role=3D"presentation" aria-hidden=3D"true" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D=
"0" border=3D"0" align=3D"center" width=3D"100%" eo-block=3D"text" bgcolor=
=3D""> <tbody> <tr> <td class=3D"container" style=3D"padding-top:15px;paddi=
ng-bottom:15px"> <div class=3D"text-block"><div style=3D"text-align: center=
;"><a href=3D"https://vsx45j1n.r.us-west-2.awstrack.me/L0/https:%2F%2Fthewi=
re.in%2Fgovernment%2Fhow-the-modi-government-overestimated-indias-capacity-=
to-make-covid-vaccines/1/01010178fef9c7fa-136f0a2b-7da4-4e29-89ba-fecd4111b=
d82-000000/RkBMhuyRMgmT47loOf0xVEE--VM=3D211" style=3D"text-decoration:none=
;" target=3D"_blank"><strong><span style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, =
sans-serif;"><span class=3D"roboto" style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica,=
 sans-serif; font-size: 24px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><u>How the Modi Governm=
ent Overestimated India=E2=80=99s Capacity to Make COVID Vaccines</u></span=
></span></strong></a></div></div> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table><table role=
=3D"presentation" aria-hidden=3D"true" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" =
border=3D"0" align=3D"center" width=3D"100%" eo-block=3D"text" bgcolor=3D""=
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nd-repeat: no-repeat;">
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ody>
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x;">
                                                                           =
         <div class=3D"text-block" style=3D"color: rgb(49, 54, 56); line-he=
ight: 200%;"><span style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><sp=
an class=3D"roboto" style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; fon=
t-size: 18px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">The total number of COVID-19 vaccine do=
ses administered around the world stood at &nbsp;928.68 million on April 20=
, 2021, according to Our World in Data. India had administered 127.13 milli=
on doses, behind only the US, with 213.39 million, and China, 195.02 millio=
n. Some 40% of the US population, versus only 8% of the Indian population, =
had received at least one dose, writes Neeta Sanghi.</span></span><br><span=
 style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class=3D"roboto=
" style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; colo=
r: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br>According to India=E2=80=99s Ministry of External Aff=
airs, India had exported 66 million doses to 94 countries as of April 22. O=
f this, only 10.61 million were grants; the remainder had been exported by =
Serum Institute of India (SII), partly to meet its contract with the COVAX =
alliance and partly as direct sale to foreign countries.</span></span><br><=
span style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class=3D"ro=
boto" style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; =
color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br>India=E2=80=99s contribution to the global volume=
 of doses of COVID-19 vaccines is 193 million, out of 929 million doses, wh=
ich is 21%. This is in sharp contrast to a widely held belief in India, and=
 abroad, that India will be the bulwark of COVID-19 vaccines for poor count=
ries. The statistical basis of this belief is an oft repeated statement tha=
t India contributes 60% of the world=E2=80=99s production of vaccines.</spa=
n></span><br><span style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><sp=
an class=3D"roboto" style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; fon=
t-size: 18px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br>This is an overestimation of India=
=E2=80=99s capacity. A 2019 report by the International Market Analysis Res=
earch and Consulting group stated that India =E2=80=9Caccounts for around 6=
0% of the total vaccines supplied to UNICEF=E2=80=9D (emphasis added). &nbs=
p;UNICEF caters largely to child vaccinations like DTP, MMR, polio, etc. in=
 the developing and underdeveloped worlds. Its requirement doesn=E2=80=99t =
include child and adult vaccinations in the developed world.</span></span><=
br><span style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class=
=3D"roboto" style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: =
18px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br>Nevertheless, this is still a sizable contr=
ibution and a very commendable achievement of Indian vaccine manufacturers.=
 But this high capacity is not easily convertible to making vaccines for th=
e COVID-19 pandemic.</span></span><br><span style=3D"font-family: Arial, He=
lvetica, sans-serif;"><span class=3D"roboto" style=3D"font-family: Arial, H=
elvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><br>Read the f=
ull analysis </span><span class=3D"roboto" style=3D"font-family: Arial, Hel=
vetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; color: rgb(184, 49, 47);"><a href=3D"h=
ttps://vsx45j1n.r.us-west-2.awstrack.me/L0/https:%2F%2Fthewire.in%2Fhealth%=
2Fhow-the-modi-government-overestimated-indias-capacity-to-make-covid-vacci=
nes/2/01010178fef9c7fa-136f0a2b-7da4-4e29-89ba-fecd4111bd82-000000/53iWnFjW=
87H8rF_sUse94waFv6A=3D211" style=3D"text-decoration: none; color: inherit;"=
 target=3D"_blank"><strong><u>here</u></strong></a></span><span class=3D"ro=
boto" style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; =
color: rgb(0, 0, 0);">.</span></span><br></div>
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F%2Fthewire.in%2Fhealth%2Fcovid-19-delhi-deaths-cases-fourth-surge/1/010101=
78fef9c7fa-136f0a2b-7da4-4e29-89ba-fecd4111bd82-000000/PYxOrAPs1KQ6G0hiA0Hn=
j1gPXxA=3D211" style=3D"text-decoration:none;" target=3D"_blank"><strong><s=
pan style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class=3D"rob=
oto" style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 24px; c=
olor: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><u>COVID-19: Just What Is Happening in Delhi?</u></spa=
n></span></strong></a><a href=3D"https://vsx45j1n.r.us-west-2.awstrack.me/L=
0/https:%2F%2Fyoutu.be%2FDVdciOUoDUg/1/01010178fef9c7fa-136f0a2b-7da4-4e29-=
89ba-fecd4111bd82-000000/Na_kV4M4z-eFywg5l6EWOajMU_Q=3D211" style=3D"text-d=
ecoration:none;" target=3D"_blank"><br></a><a href=3D"https://vsx45j1n.r.us=
-west-2.awstrack.me/L0/https:%2F%2Fthewire.in%2Fgovernment%2Frampant-arrest=
s-rare-convictions-in-punjab-the-uapa-is-ripe-for-misuse/3/01010178fef9c7fa=
-136f0a2b-7da4-4e29-89ba-fecd4111bd82-000000/hpB6FBGz1rIJNFFY55D1ptLVizw=3D=
211" style=3D"text-decoration:none;" target=3D"_blank"></a><strong><a href=
=3D"https://vsx45j1n.r.us-west-2.awstrack.me/L0/https:%2F%2Fthewire.in%2Fgo=
vernment%2Frampant-arrests-rare-convictions-in-punjab-the-uapa-is-ripe-for-=
misuse/4/01010178fef9c7fa-136f0a2b-7da4-4e29-89ba-fecd4111bd82-000000/Kqm49=
AXf2Z3JmoHGubjcgouw1JE=3D211" style=3D"text-decoration:none;" target=3D"_bl=
ank"></a></strong></div></td> </tr> </tbody></table><table role=3D"presenta=
tion" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" border=3D"0" align=3D"center" wid=
th=3D"100%" eo-block=3D"text" bgcolor=3D""> <tbody> <tr> <td class=3D"conta=
iner" style=3D"padding-top:15px;padding-bottom:15px"> <div class=3D"text-bl=
ock" style=3D"line-height: 200%;"><span style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvet=
ica, sans-serif;"><span class=3D"roboto" style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helve=
tica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;">This is a note on Delhi=E2=80=99s COVID=
-19 epidemic =E2=80=93 to put the devastating current news in context. The =
desperate hunt for beds, the shortages of oxygen, almost 30,000 positive te=
sts and over 250 recorded deaths in one day, with every third person tested=
 being found positive, writes Murad Banaji.</span></span><br><span style=3D=
"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class=3D"roboto" style=
=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;"><br>This i=
s Delhi=E2=80=99s fourth COVID-19 surge. It is overshadowing all the others=
. As in other cities, this tragedy comes when so many have already been inf=
ected. By January 2021, more than 50% of the city had been infected. This e=
stimate is backed up by lots of data and analysis.<br>Prior to this wave, t=
hings seemed under control. By mid-February, with 60,000 daily tests, Delhi=
 was finding only 100-150 cases. There were one or two daily deaths. This i=
s unlike Mumbai, which was testing much less but reporting more infections =
and deaths even in the =E2=80=9Ccalm period=E2=80=9D.</span></span><br><spa=
n style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class=3D"robot=
o" style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;"><b=
r>The rise of this wave in Delhi was slow at first. The basic reproduction =
number (R0) actually crossed 1 in mid-February, but hovered below 1.5 until=
 March 19 =E2=80=93 by which time there were about 700 daily cases. Since A=
pril 5, it has been around 2. Deaths started a clear rise around March 19, =
and recently have shot up.</span></span><br><span style=3D"font-family: Ari=
al, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class=3D"roboto" style=3D"font-family: Ar=
ial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;"><br>My latest estimates (from=
 last year): about 1 in 10 infections were being picked up in testing. In t=
he last week, there have been around 1.5 lakh cases =E2=80=93 at a 10% dete=
ction rate, this would correspond to 1.5 million new infections (or 8% of t=
he city=E2=80=99s population). The reality is almost certainly worse.<br><b=
r>Read the full analysis </span><span class=3D"roboto" style=3D"font-family=
: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; color: rgb(184, 49, 47);">=
<a href=3D"https://vsx45j1n.r.us-west-2.awstrack.me/L0/https:%2F%2Fthewire.=
in%2Fhealth%2Fcovid-19-delhi-deaths-cases-fourth-surge/2/01010178fef9c7fa-1=
36f0a2b-7da4-4e29-89ba-fecd4111bd82-000000/Mz4YXkcP8HIoFsj4Ox54lb6KUaQ=3D21=
1" style=3D"text-decoration: none; color: inherit;" target=3D"_blank"><stro=
ng><u>here</u></strong></a></span><span class=3D"roboto" style=3D"font-fami=
ly: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;">.</span></span><br></di=
v> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table><table width=3D"100%" style=3D"table-layout=
: fixed; width: 100%;" eo-block=3D"divider" role=3D"presentation" aria=3D"h=
idden" bgcolor=3D""> <tbody> <tr> <td style=3D"min-width:100%;padding-top:1=
5px;padding-bottom:15px"> <table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=
=3D"0" align=3D"center" style=3D"border-top: 1px solid rgb(220, 214, 209); =
border-collapse: collapse; width: 83%;"> <tbody> <tr> <td> <span></span> </=
td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table><table role=3D"pre=
sentation" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" border=3D"0" align=3D"center=
" width=3D"100%" eo-block=3D"title" bgcolor=3D"">
    <tbody><tr>
        <td width=3D"100%" style=3D"text-decoration: none;padding-top: 15px=
; padding-bottom: 15px;" class=3D"container text-block"><div style=3D"text-=
align: center;"><a href=3D"https://vsx45j1n.r.us-west-2.awstrack.me/L0/http=
s:%2F%2Fthewire.in%2Fhealth%2Fwatch-india-may-see-five-lakh-covid-cases-300=
0-deaths-a-day-by-may-1/1/01010178fef9c7fa-136f0a2b-7da4-4e29-89ba-fecd4111=
bd82-000000/i04eOEIG61wBXQOvrP2TMfcf8ek=3D211" style=3D"text-decoration:non=
e;" target=3D"_blank"><strong><span style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica,=
 sans-serif;"><span class=3D"roboto" style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica=
, sans-serif; font-size: 24px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><u>Watch | 'India May =
See Five Lakh COVID Cases, 3,000 Deaths a D=E2=80=8Bay by May 1'</u></span>=
</span></strong></a></div></td>
    </tr>
</tbody></table><table border=3D"0" class=3D"container" align=3D"center" ce=
llpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" width=3D"100%" style=3D"margin-bottom: 5p=
x; margin-top: 5px;" eo-block=3D"image" role=3D"presentation" bgcolor=3D"">
    <tbody>
        <tr>
            <td align=3D"center" class=3D"hero" style=3D"border-collapse: c=
ollapse; border-spacing: 0; margin: 0;padding: 0;" valign=3D"top">
                <a href=3D"https://vsx45j1n.r.us-west-2.awstrack.me/L0/http=
s:%2F%2Fthewire.in%2Fhealth%2Fwatch-india-may-see-five-lakh-covid-cases-300=
0-deaths-a-day-by-may-1/2/01010178fef9c7fa-136f0a2b-7da4-4e29-89ba-fecd4111=
bd82-000000/319uCbvjRlnnt5elhPty3qx5OLU=3D211"><img src=3D"https://gallery.=
eomail1.com/c9d9380d-4f4c-11e9-a3c9-06b79b628af2%2F1619180554454-KT-22-Apri=
l-2021.00_41_04_07.Still002-1200x600.jpg" width=3D"569" style=3D"
                        width: 100%;
                        max-width: 100%;
                        object-fit: cover;
                        padding: 0;
                        outline: none;
                        border: none;
                        display: block;
                     "></a>
            </td>
        </tr>
    </tbody>
</table><table role=3D"presentation" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" bo=
rder=3D"0" align=3D"center" width=3D"100%" eo-block=3D"text" bgcolor=3D"">
    <tbody>
        <tr>
            <td class=3D"container" style=3D"padding-top: 15px; padding-bot=
tom: 15px;">
                <div class=3D"text-block" style=3D"line-height: 200%;"><spa=
n style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class=3D"robot=
o" style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;">In=
 an interview that will perhaps unnerve the government, one of America=E2=
=80=99s highly regarded epidemiologists and biostatisticians has said that =
according to her mathematical projections, India could have 500,000 daily C=
OVID-19 cases and 3,000 daily COVID-19 deaths by May 1.</span></span><br><s=
pan style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class=3D"rob=
oto" style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;">=
<br>Professor Bhramar Mukherjee of Michigan University has told Karan Thapa=
r in a 28-minute interview for <em>The Wire</em> that in terms of infection=
s, the peak will come in mid-May when India could see 8-10 lakh daily infec=
tions and in terms of deaths, the peak will be two weeks later in May-end w=
hen India could expect 4,500 daily deaths.</span></span><br><span style=3D"=
font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class=3D"roboto" style=3D=
"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;"><br>Watch the=
 full interview </span><span class=3D"roboto" style=3D"font-family: Arial, =
Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; color: rgb(184, 49, 47);"><a href=
=3D"https://vsx45j1n.r.us-west-2.awstrack.me/L0/https:%2F%2Fthewire.in%2Fhe=
alth%2Fwatch-india-may-see-five-lakh-covid-cases-3000-deaths-a-day-by-may-1=
/3/01010178fef9c7fa-136f0a2b-7da4-4e29-89ba-fecd4111bd82-000000/CzNwMqsf085=
YiNGBe7g6kjcgtwo=3D211" style=3D"text-decoration: none; color: inherit;" ta=
rget=3D"_blank"><strong><u>here</u></strong></a></span><span class=3D"robot=
o" style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;">.<=
/span></span><br></div>
            </td>
        </tr>
    </tbody>
</table><table width=3D"100%" style=3D"table-layout: fixed; width: 100%;" e=
o-block=3D"divider" role=3D"presentation" aria=3D"hidden" bgcolor=3D"">
    <tbody>
    <tr>
        <td style=3D"min-width:100%;padding-top:15px; padding-bottom:15px;"=
>
            <table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=3D"0" align=
=3D"center" style=3D"border-top: 1px solid rgb(220, 214, 209); border-colla=
pse: collapse; width: 83%;">
                <tbody>
                    <tr>
                        <td>
                            <span></span>
                        </td>
                    </tr>
                </tbody>
            </table>
        </td>
    </tr>
    </tbody>
</table><table role=3D"presentation" aria-hidden=3D"true" cellspacing=3D"0"=
 cellpadding=3D"0" border=3D"0" align=3D"center" width=3D"100%" eo-block=3D=
"text" bgcolor=3D""> <tbody> <tr> <td class=3D"container" style=3D"padding-=
top:15px;padding-bottom:15px"> <div class=3D"text-block" style=3D"line-heig=
ht: 200%;"><div style=3D"text-align: center;"><a href=3D"https://vsx45j1n.r=
.us-west-2.awstrack.me/L0/https:%2F%2Fthewire.in%2Fmedia%2Fhis-masters-spin=
-as-modi-faces-covid-surge-heat-medias-new-villains-are-farmers-babus/1/010=
10178fef9c7fa-136f0a2b-7da4-4e29-89ba-fecd4111bd82-000000/g3y939KjyjY8P2f93=
FPc3avTfe8=3D211" style=3D"text-decoration:none;" target=3D"_blank"><strong=
><span style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class=3D"=
roboto" style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 24px=
; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><u>His Master's Spin: As Modi Faces Covid Surge Hea=
t, Media's New Villains are Farmers, Babus</u></span></span></strong></a></=
div></div> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table><table role=3D"presentation" aria-h=
idden=3D"true" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" border=3D"0" align=3D"ce=
nter" width=3D"100%" eo-block=3D"text" bgcolor=3D""> <tbody> <tr> <td class=
=3D"container" style=3D"padding-top:15px;padding-bottom:15px"> <div class=
=3D"text-block" style=3D"line-height: 200%;"><span style=3D"font-family: Ar=
ial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class=3D"roboto" style=3D"font-family: A=
rial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;">As Delhi=E2=80=99s hospitals=
 were making desperate calls for oxygen and Prime Minister Narendra Modi=E2=
=80=99s personal handling of the COVID-19 crisis came under sharp scrutiny,=
 the ruling party=E2=80=99s spokespersons and government-aligned media foun=
d new scapegoats this week.</span></span><br><span style=3D"font-family: Ar=
ial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class=3D"roboto" style=3D"font-family: A=
rial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;"><br>On Tuesday evening, Delh=
i chief minister Arvind Kejriwal tweeted that some hospitals were left with=
 =E2=80=9Cjust a few hours of oxygen=E2=80=9D. Deputy chief minister Manish=
 Sisodia posted a list of hospitals with the number of hours left for their=
 oxygen supply to run out.</span></span><br><span style=3D"font-family: Ari=
al, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class=3D"roboto" style=3D"font-family: Ar=
ial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;"><br>In his letter to commerce=
 minister Piyush Goyal, Kejriwal alleged that the output of a major oxygen =
supplier to Delhi hospitals, Inox Air Products, has been =E2=80=9Cdiverted=
=E2=80=9D to other states. =E2=80=9CAt this critical juncture, it will not =
be possible for hospitals to enter into the contractual arrangements with t=
he new suppliers who have now been assigned to Delhi. The disruption is alr=
eady starting to cause critical shortage across major hospitals,=E2=80=9D h=
e wrote on April 19.</span></span><br><span style=3D"font-family: Arial, He=
lvetica, sans-serif;"><span class=3D"roboto" style=3D"font-family: Arial, H=
elvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;"><br>The fact that Delhi=E2=80=99s p=
rivate hospitals themselves took to social media and also approached the hi=
gh court for help on the oxygen front made it clear that this was not some =
political battle between the Aam Aadmi Party, which rules Delhi, and the BJ=
P, which controls the Centre.</span></span><br><span style=3D"font-family: =
Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class=3D"roboto" style=3D"font-family:=
 Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;"><br>The oxygen shortage wa=
s a sharp pointer to ordinary Indians that something was seriously amiss in=
 the Centre=E2=80=99s handling of the fast-spiralling crisis. If they had m=
issed the earlier warnings signs =E2=80=93 the failure to cancel the Kumbh =
Mela and the enormous election rallies in West Bengal and elsewhere =E2=80=
=93 the fact that hospitals in the national capital were literally gasping =
for breath triggered widespread anger against Narendra Modi and his governm=
ent.</span></span><br><span style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-se=
rif;"><span class=3D"roboto" style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-s=
erif; font-size: 18px;"><br>As if on cue, the Times group=E2=80=99s English=
 language news channel, Times Now, led the charge in the opposite direction=
. Its primetime show had the hashtag =E2=80=9CKisanCovidAndHypocrisy=E2=80=
=9D, claiming that the opposition was hypocritical for not objecting to the=
 farmers=E2=80=99 protest, as the former had slammed the BJP for not just a=
llowing but also encouraging the Kumbh Mela.<br><br>Farmers have been prote=
sting at Delhi's borders for months now. Why would this create sudden delay=
s in a time of crisis?<br><br>Read the full analysis </span><span class=3D"=
roboto" style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px=
; color: rgb(184, 49, 47);"><a href=3D"https://vsx45j1n.r.us-west-2.awstrac=
k.me/L0/https:%2F%2Fthewire.in%2Fpolitics%2Fhis-masters-spin-as-modi-faces-=
covid-surge-heat-medias-new-villains-are-farmers-babus/1/01010178fef9c7fa-1=
36f0a2b-7da4-4e29-89ba-fecd4111bd82-000000/HQL_0-srrTIuNUE0VKCLTJpVYYo=3D21=
1" style=3D"text-decoration: none; color: inherit;" target=3D"_blank"><stro=
ng><u>here</u></strong></a></span><span class=3D"roboto" style=3D"font-fami=
ly: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;">.</span></span><br></di=
v> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table><table width=3D"100%" style=3D"table-layout=
: fixed; width: 100%;" eo-block=3D"divider" role=3D"presentation" aria=3D"h=
idden" bgcolor=3D""> <tbody> <tr> <td style=3D"min-width:100%;padding-top:1=
5px;padding-bottom:15px"> <table border=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" cellspacing=
=3D"0" align=3D"center" style=3D"border-top: 1px solid rgb(220, 214, 209); =
border-collapse: collapse; width: 84%;"> <tbody> <tr> <td> <span></span> </=
td> </tr> </tbody> </table> </td> </tr> </tbody> </table><table role=3D"pre=
sentation" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=3D"0" border=3D"0" align=3D"center=
" width=3D"100%" eo-block=3D"title" bgcolor=3D"">
    <tbody><tr>
        <td width=3D"100%" style=3D"text-decoration: none;padding-top: 15px=
; padding-bottom: 15px;" class=3D"container text-block"><div style=3D"text-=
align: center;"><a href=3D"https://vsx45j1n.r.us-west-2.awstrack.me/L0/http=
s:%2F%2Fthewire.in%2Fgovernment%2Fmodi-government-election-campaign-covid-1=
9/1/01010178fef9c7fa-136f0a2b-7da4-4e29-89ba-fecd4111bd82-000000/5TjHIUdDj0=
jJH-8RYwUVpjlX3SQ=3D211" style=3D"text-decoration:none;" target=3D"_blank">=
<strong><span style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span cl=
ass=3D"roboto" style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-siz=
e: 24px; color: rgb(0, 0, 0);"><u>A Part-Time Central Government With Part-=
Time Ministers Can't Handle a Crisis Like COVID</u></span></span></strong><=
/a></div></td>
    </tr>
</tbody></table><table role=3D"presentation" cellspacing=3D"0" cellpadding=
=3D"0" border=3D"0" align=3D"center" width=3D"100%" eo-block=3D"text" bgcol=
or=3D"">
    <tbody>
        <tr>
            <td class=3D"container" style=3D"padding-top: 15px; padding-bot=
tom: 15px;">
                <div class=3D"text-block" style=3D"line-height: 200%;"><spa=
n style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class=3D"robot=
o" style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;">Th=
is week, both the Delhi and Bombay high courts reprimanded the Centre in st=
ark language for its lack of COVID-19 preparedness. =E2=80=9CThere is no se=
nse of humanity left or what. This is really, really ridiculous. It is an e=
mergency of such a grave nature. Human lives are not that important?=E2=80=
=9D said the Delhi high court on the life-threatening undersupply of oxygen=
, writes Tara Krishnaswamy.</span></span><br><span style=3D"font-family: Ar=
ial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class=3D"roboto" style=3D"font-family: A=
rial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;"><br>Meanwhile, the Bombay hi=
gh court criticised the Government of India for its poor vaccine rollout =
=E2=80=93 =E2=80=9CThere needs to be a solution. You can=E2=80=99t leave ol=
d people like this. It=E2=80=99s like choosing between the devil and the de=
ep sea. You have ICU in an ambulance, you can definitely manage a refrigera=
tor for home vaccination. You can=E2=80=99t leave the old to die=E2=80=9C.<=
/span></span><br><span style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"=
><span class=3D"roboto" style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;=
 font-size: 18px;"><br>To put it simply, the courts rapped the Central gove=
rnment for failing its basic duty of protecting the life of citizens and as=
ked to see overdue homework. No such plan has been published yet, or known =
to be formulated by the Centre, even as India is in the eye of the storm.</=
span></span><br><span style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;">=
<span class=3D"roboto" style=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; =
font-size: 18px;"><br>The fact is that the political executive of the Gover=
nment of India, who are wholly responsible for such a plan, have been busy =
=E2=80=93 with state elections in four states and one union territory. The =
very public social media timelines of key figures in the executive have bee=
n dominated by poll propaganda in the past weeks.</span></span><br><span st=
yle=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class=3D"roboto" s=
tyle=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;"><br>Ir=
onically, even as the winter session of the parliament was cancelled in Dec=
ember 2020 citing COVID-19, the home minister held an election rally in Mid=
napore! The highest political executives of the Government of India have be=
en electioneering for five months now, supporting a multi-state, multi-phas=
e poll schedule plan, regardless of COVID-19.</span></span><br><span style=
=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><span class=3D"roboto" styl=
e=3D"font-family: Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px;"><br>Read =
the full article </span><span class=3D"roboto" style=3D"font-family: Arial,=
 Helvetica, sans-serif; font-size: 18px; color: rgb(184, 49, 47);"><a href=
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